FCF Bank Monitor - Q1 2025 published - FCF Fox Corporate Finance GmbH

On a biannual basis, FCF publishes its FCF Bank-Monitor.  The FCF Bank-Monitor is a research report, based on publicly available data, on the most active and largest 22 banking institutions addressing the German and Austrian Mittelstand. It supports CFOs and Heads of Treasury in the selection of their long-term banking partners, following the motto “Know-Your-Bank”.

The FCF Bank Monitor includes:  

• Credit Default Swaps: Analysis of the 1-, 5- and 10-year Credit Default Swap-Spreads (CDS-Spreads), which serve as a forward-looking risk indicator within the banking sector.  
• Rating: Rating information of the big-3 rating agencies.  
• Performance: Key fundamental performance indicators for financial institutions.  
• Bank Ranking: A ranking based on above criteria provides insight into the health and market perspective of the individual banking institutions, in addition to highlighting the relative performance between the institutions.  
• League Table: Most active banks in German and Austrian mid-cap segments by lending volume.  

Key Insights – Macro Results: 

• Since mid-February, a clear trend reversal has been observed in CDS spreads – nearly all analyzed institutions have recorded rising risk premiums since then. 
• The main driver of this development is growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy: the debate over new import tariffs and a potential return to protectionist measures under President Trump is noticeably weighing on the market environment.
• Although the average CDS spread of 54.9 bps (German and international institutions) remains slightly below the 3Q24 level, the recent widening of spreads points to a potential trend shift – the downward trajectory observed for over two years appears to have come to an end, at least for now.
• FCF’s ranking of domestic and foreign banks active in the German and Austrian MidCap market is based on CDS spreads for 1-, 5- and 10-year maturities, key credit ratings, and essential fundamental performance indicators. It provides insight into the expected future stability and resilience of the banks: BayernLB leads the ranking with 93.8 points, followed by ING Bank (88.5 points) and DZ Bank (83.0 points). Deutsche Bank ranks last with 30.5 points, behind Société Générale (41.5 points) and Natixis (43.3 points).
• The differences in CDS spreads and ratings highlight the discrepancies in current and expected bank stability – critical factors when selecting a financial institution as a lending partner (“Hausbank”) or business counterparty: 
• 1-year CDS spreads range from 9.0 bps (ING Bank) to 70.8 bps (RBI), a factor difference of 7.9x 
• 5-year CDS spreads range from 27.7 bps (ING Bank) to 144.0 bps (RBI), a factor difference of 5.2x 
• 10-year CDS spreads range from 45.1 bps (ING Bank) to 178.6 bps (RBI), a factor difference of 4.0x 
• S&P ratings range from a high of AA (BayernLB, Helaba, LBBW, and NORD/LB) to a low of BBB (UniCredit) 

Insights on Individual Banks: 

• Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) has stabilized following a steep decline (improvement) in its CDS spreads in 1H24 and, from the market’s perspective, has sustainably overcome the Cum-Ex crisis. 
• Although UniCredit receives the lowest rating (BBB) among the analyzed banks from the rating agencies, it shows very strong fundamentals and ranks first in the fundamental ranking. The comparatively weak rating is attributable to the Italian “country ceiling.” 
• RBI shows the highest CDS spread despite solid fundamentals, as investors continue to price in the withdrawal from its previously highly profitable Russia operations – although the annual general meeting in March 2025 appears to have alleviated some investor concerns.